We\u2019re halfway through the Medicaid \u201cunwinding,\u201d in which states are dropping people from the government health insurance program for the first time since the pandemic began.<\/p>\n
Millions of people have been dumped from the rolls since April, often for procedural issues like failing to respond to notices or return paperwork. But at the same time, millions have been re-enrolled or signed up for the first time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The net result: Enrollment has fallen by about 9.5 million people from the record high reached last April,<\/strong>\u00a0according to the latest estimates by KFF, based on state data. That leaves Medicaid on track to look, by the end of the unwinding, a lot like it did at the start of the coronavirus pandemic: covering about\u00a071 million people<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Enrollment churn has always been a feature of Medicaid, which covers low-income and disabled Americans. Even before the pandemic, about\u00a01 million<\/strong>\u00a0to\u00a01.5 million people\u00a0<\/strong>fell off the Medicaid rolls each month \u2014 including many who still qualified but failed to renew their coverage, Levitt said.<\/p>\n In the unwinding, a lot of people have been disenrolled in a shorter period of time. In some ways \u2014 and in some states \u2014 it\u2019s been worse than expected.<\/p>\n The Biden administration predicted about\u00a015 million\u00a0<\/strong>people would lose coverage under Medicaid or the related Children\u2019s Health Insurance Program during the unwinding period, nearly half due to procedural issues. Both predictions were low. Based on data reported so far, disenrollments\u00a0are likely to exceed\u00a017 million<\/strong><\/a>, according to the KFF report,\u00a070 percent\u00a0<\/strong>of them\u00a0due to procedural reasons<\/a>.<\/p>\n But about two-thirds of the\u00a048 million<\/strong>\u00a0Medicaid beneficiaries who have had their eligibility reviewed so far got their coverage renewed. About one-third lost it.<\/p>\n Timothy McBride<\/strong>, a health economist at\u00a0Washington University in St. Louis<\/strong>, said the nation\u2019s historically low unemployment rate means people who lose Medicaid coverage are more likely to find job-based coverage or better able to afford plans on Obamacare marketplaces. \u201cThat is one reason why the drop in Medicaid is not a lot worse,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n There are big differences between states<\/strong>. Oregon, for example, has disenrolled just\u00a012 percent\u00a0<\/strong>of its beneficiaries.\u00a0Seventy-five percent\u00a0<\/strong>were renewed, according to KFF. The rest are pending.<\/p>\n At the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma\u2019s dumped\u00a043 percent<\/strong>\u00a0of its Medicaid beneficiaries in the unwinding, renewing coverage for just\u00a034 percent<\/strong>. About\u00a024 percent<\/strong>\u00a0are pending.<\/p>\n States have varying eligibility rules, and some make it easier to keep people enrolled. For instance, Oregon allows children to stay on Medicaid until age 6 without having to reapply. Everyone else gets up to two years of coverage regardless of changes in income.<\/p>\n Joan Alker<\/strong>, executive director of the\u00a0Georgetown University Center for Children and Families<\/strong>, said she remains worried the drop in Medicaid enrollment among children is steeper than typical. That\u2019s particularly bothersome because children usually qualify for Medicaid at higher household income levels than their parents or other adults.\u00a0<\/p>\n More than\u00a03.7 million<\/strong>\u00a0children have lost Medicaid coverage during the unwinding, according to the center\u2019s latest data. \u201cMany more kids are falling off now than prior to the pandemic<\/strong>,\u201d Alker said.<\/p>\n And when they\u2019re dropped, many families struggle to get them back on, she said. \u201cThe whole system is backlogged and the ability of people to get back on in a timely fashion is more limited,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n The big question, Levitt said, is how many of the millions of people dropped from Medicaid are now uninsured.<\/strong><\/p>\n The only state to survey those disenrolled \u2014 Utah \u2014\u00a0discovered\u00a0about 30 percent\u00a0<\/strong>were uninsured<\/a>. Many of the rest found employer health coverage or signed up for subsidized coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplace.<\/p>\n What\u2019s happened nationwide remains unclear.<\/p>\n This article is not available for syndication due to republishing restrictions. If you have questions about the availability of this or other content for republication, please contact NewsWeb@kff.org<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n KFF Health News<\/a> is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF\u2014an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF<\/a>.<\/p>\n This story can be republished for free (details<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n
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